by Fran Goldstein
COP31 — The 2026 UN Climate Summit
The annual UN climate negotiations shape global strategy on emissions, finance, energy transition and adaptation. After disappointing progress on phasing out fossil fuels last year at COP30 in Belém, pressure is mounting for clearer plans and real follow-through. Turkey will host COP31 in November in Antalya, but Australia – a major fossil-fuel exporter – will preside over negotiations under a compromise deal. Other major climate science conferences in 2026 include a Global Fossil Fuel Phase-Out Conference cohosted by Colombia and the Netherlands and Global Summit on Climate Change in Paris.
U.S. midterm elections and emergency preparedness
The November 2026 congressional midterm elections could shift the balance of power, with major implications for climate and energy legislation, federal spending priorities, and oversight of agencies such as the EPA and FEMA. While federal EV purchase tax credits expired in late 2025, a significant political shift could further weaken or roll back remaining clean-energy supports, including incentives for hydrogen, battery manufacturing and grid infrastructure, increasing uncertainty for domestic and international clean-energy investment. Meanwhile, funding constraints and ongoing budget disputes have strained the federal government’s capacity to prepare for and respond to climate-driven disasters.
Renewables overtaking coal
Most projections show renewable sources (wind, solar, hydro) overtaking coal globally as a source of electricity generation by the mid-to-late 2020s, though timing varies by source and region. Because coal is the most carbon-intensive major fuel, this shift reduces the power sector’s contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, a necessary condition for meeting Paris Agreement goals. It also strengthens the case for accelerating clean energy policies and investment, while underscoring the need for expanded grids, energy storage and reliable backup power during the transition to fully replace fossil fuels.
Carbon border taxes and global trade
Europe’s new carbon border tax – Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) – takes effect, marking the first global attempt to impose a carbon price on international trade. The policy fundamentally changes the economics of manufacturing by requiring importers of high-emission goods, such as steel, cement, aluminum and fertilizer, to pay a hefty tax. Producers in countries like China, India and the United States will have to either decarbonize their factories or lose competitiveness. CABM could affect consumer prices, reshape global supply chains, and encourage other countries to adopt similar measures.
The AI energy crunch vs ‘green’ goals
The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence is driving surging demand for electricity from data centers that consume vast amounts of power and water. In some regions, this is straining electric grids and complicating climate goals, especially if new demand is met with fossil fuels. A central tension in 2026 will be whether wind and solar can be built fast enough to power the AI boom while simultaneously replacing existing fossil-fuel generation. If not, major technology companies that promised to operate on 100% renewable energy may be forced to rely on carbon-intensive power sources, threatening global decarbonization timelines.
Extreme weather and shifting climate patterns
Recent disasters — including the Los Angeles fire and extreme heat in Australia — show how climate change is already intensifying heat, drought, wildfires and health risks. At the same time, shifts in ocean patterns such as La Niña, monitored by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, influence floods, droughts, storms and food production worldwide, making extreme weather more frequent and more disruptive. These events continue to test government response capacity and community resilience.
Climate fights move to the courts
Climate-related lawsuits are expanding worldwide, from cases targeting fossil-fuel companies to legal challenges seeking greater government accountability for inadequate climate policies. Courts are increasingly becoming arenas for climate action, and decisions in 2026 could redefine legal obligations for governments and corporations on emissions reductions, adaptation and climate justice.