by Neil Auwarter

Why it matters

“This is the most important midterm election in American history,” according to Pulitzer Prize winning historian Joseph Ellis. At stake are the economy, America’s place in the world, Earth’s climate and the health of democracy itself. But Democrats have reason for optimism: Democratic congressional candidates hold an 8-point lead over Republican candidates, according to an average of recent polling on a generic ballot.  There is an almost identical “enthusiasm gap” favoring Democrats: 77% of registered Democrats say they are certain to vote, compared to 69% of registered Republicans. These large margins suggest a Blue Wave, with Democrats highly likely to flip the House, and the Senate race has moved from virtual toss-up to likely Democrat.

While the reasons to vote are numerous, this article will focus on the Earth’s climate. Most Americans believe climate warming is being caused by human activities, mainly the burning of coal, oil and gas. Yet the Trump administration has systematically enabled the fossil fuel industry, while hobbling our development of green energy sources. Trump, with the aid of a Republican Congress, has:

• withdrawn the US from the Paris Climate Agreement;
• gutted the scientific ranks of federal agencies responsible for studying and monitoring climate, like the Environmental Protection Agency and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA);
• reversed the 2009 EPA finding that greenhouse gasses endanger public health within the meaning of the Clean Air Act; as a result, federal vehicle emission standards were repealed, and the EPA now lacks the authority to regulate greenhouse gasses;
• appointed as Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum, who has deep financial and political ties to the fossil fuel industry;
• appointed oil and gas fracking company executive Chris Wright as Secretary of Energy;
• appointed fossil fuel cheerleader Lee Zeldin as head of the Environmental Protection Agency;
• killed the federal tax credit for electric vehicles and other clean energy incentives with the One Big Beautiful Bill Act
• paid $4 billion taxpayer dollars to cancel federal contracts with clean energy companies to halt planned offshore wind energy projects;
• rescinded billions of dollars of federal funds designated for clean energy grants and environmental justice; and
• in Orwellian fashion, ordered federal agencies to scrub terms like “climate change” and “decarbonization” from agency websites and public documents.

The list goes on.

A Democrat majority in the House would impede Trump’s ongoing assault on the climate. A Democratic House could:

• stop further federal legislation harming the climate;
• negotiate to push affirmative climate legislation by leveraging the House’s power to hold up must-pass bills, such as government funding and the debt limit; and
• use its subpoena, investigative and hearing authority to expose to the public the depth of the fossil fuel industry’s influence on the administration’s policies and the resulting harm.

If, in addition, Democrats achieve a Senate majority, the Senate could:

• strengthen Democrats’ ability to block further legislation detrimental to the climate;
• conduct its own investigations and hearings to spotlight climate issues; and
• use the Senate’s power to confirm judicial and cabinet-level appointments to block future extreme nominees, such as climate-deniers and those with ties to the fossil fuel industry.

A Democratic Congress would have substantial power to hold the fort for the final two years of Trump’s presidency. Then a Democratic clean sweep in the 2028 Presidential and Congressional election would allow a full scale overhaul of legislation, executive orders and cabinet appointments. A unified Democratic government could completely reverse the destructive acts of Trump and the Republican-controlled Congress and restore the United States to its former place as a global leader on climate.

Don’t let “climate hushing” dampen your enthusiasm

Some Democratic midterm candidates have chosen to de-emphasize climate messaging in favor of focusing on improving the economy. Critics among the ranks of climate advocates have termed this “climate hushing.” The shift is a direct reflection of polling that consistently lists the economy as by far the primary concern of most voters — particularly independent voters likely to swing election results. In deciding to court independent voters by spotlighting the economy, candidates like Massachusetts Sen. Ed Markey (D) are betting that elevating the issue of highest primacy to voters will be more effective than diffuse, multi-issue messaging. Accordingly, while Markey co-authored the Green New Deal, today he is more likely to tout affordable energy than green energy.

Perhaps the most prominent advocate of this emphasis-shift strategy is the Searchlight Institute, founded by Democratic Party strategist Adam Jentleson. Searchlight gives this advice to Democratic midterm candidates: “How to talk about climate: Don’t.”  Searchlight cites polling showing that voters in closely contested midterm races rank economic issues — affordability, health care and wages — as much higher concerns than climate.  Further, polling suggests as many as 60% of these voters react negatively to hearing candidates talk about climate change.

Among critics of climate hushing is Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), who expressed his concern that, “When leaders don’t talk about something, enthusiasm falls among voters. Bill McKibben, co-founder of 350.org and head of Third Act echoed Whitehouse’s concern. When voter enthusiasm suffers, they reason, so does voter turnout.

It is apparent that reasonable minds can differ over which messaging strategy would best motivate Democratic voter turnout. But both sides of this debate must agree that a climate-hushing Democratic candidate with a record of advocating for climate protection would be preferable to a Trump-enabling candidate. As November approaches, it is time to set aside strategic differences and do everything possible to stoke enthusiasm in the persuadable people in our lives.

Ignore the brouhaha over mail-in ballots — they will count

President Trump has attempted to create confusion over the status of mail-in ballots — the means by which almost one third of Americans vote. Trump issued an order directing the Postal Service to screen mail-in ballots using a purported list of registered voters. When States challenged this order in court, two federal courts stayed (stopped) the order, finding it was likely unconstitutional. Then on September 14th, the United States Supreme Court rejected the Administration’s request to lift the lower courts’ stay.  This is the last word on the matter, and it means mail-in votes will be delivered and counted. Period.

The takeaway

As November approaches, it is time to do everything possible to stoke voter enthusiasm, particularly in close races.  We must cut through any attempt to discourage voters by sowing confusion or attacking the integrity of the election. A midterm Blue Wave is the first step toward returning our government to the pursuit of sane climate policy.